Watching election results play out is as close to sport enthusiasm as I get. Zambia had a General Election on 13th August, and the results are currently being announced. As of 5:30pm on Sunday 16th August, 105 results have been announced.
I've put together an analysis of the results thus far; and have used emergent trends to forecast what the probable outcome of the election will be. I'll continue to update this document as results are announced. Once the final results are given I'll then do a deep dive of the results and compare against my original forecast in the Fifth Settlement. We'll also dig into what the numbers say about the mandate for the 2026-2031 period. A very clear social contract has emerged and we'll dig into that.
With that said, you can download v1 of my election analysis here 👇
